19/07/2011  |  0

Metropolitan Economic Activity Index Ratings

Winnipeg ranks third nationally

Although Toronto was not at the top of any of the sub-categories of economic momentum, its high scores over many measures gave it the top aggregate score.

“Simply put, the multi-channel nature of Toronto’s economic engine is the secret not only behind its current top ranking, but also behind its ability to maintain a relatively high ranking position over the past two years,” said Benjamin Tal, CIBC deputy chief economist.

He noted that during the first quarter of the year, overall employment in the city rose by close to 2% and more than 80% of the increase in employment was in full-time jobs.

The city’s population is also growing at a quick annual pace of almost 2% and housing starts were 47.8% higher than the same period in 2010. Meanwhile, consumer bankruptcy in Toronto has been declining over the past year and currently ranks among Canada’s lowest.

Mr. Tal said the index — which combines nine economic variables into one measure for each city, correlating each variable with overall GDP for the economy as a whole — provides a picture that goes “beyond the headline GDP numbers.”

“More than two-thirds of Canada’s GDP is generated in major cities. So the tale of those cities is the tale of the economy,” he said.

The city that everyone loves to hate, moved up from second to claim first in the latest rankings. Kitchener, Winnipeg, Regina and Montreal rounded out the top five performers on the index, while Vancouver ranked seventh and Calgary came in at 15.

Mr. Tal singled Kitchener out for its strong labour market and healthy population growth.

He noted Winnipeg’s positive momentum is a new development, with the city outperforming the national average on economic indicators in recent quarters. Strong population growth of 1.7% year over year, as well as above-average employment growth and the lowest unemployment rate among major urban centres, contributed to the forward-moving potential.

Regina claims the lowest personal bankruptcy rate among urban centres and enjoys a rapidly growing population and job market.

Montreal, which slipped from the top spot in the previous rankings, continues to show strength in the manufacturing sector, Mr. Tal said.

Here’s the Q1 2011 list of census metropolitan areas by rank, along with the three-quarter moving average for each city:

1. Toronto 25.04
2. Kitchener 19.02
3. Winnipeg 18.00
4. Regina 17.71
5. Montréal 17.21
6. Québec City 16.60
7. Vancouver 14.50
8. Halifax 14.13
9. Ottawa 13.96
10. Hamilton 11.26
11. Edmonton 11.16
12. Trois-Rivières 9.97
13. Sudbury 9.86
14. St. John’s 8.90
15. Calgary 8.03
16. London 7.01
17. Victoria 6.07
18. St. Catharines-Niagara 4.58
19. Saskatoon 2.78
20. Kingston 1.47
21. Windsor 1.43
22. Sherbrooke 0.49
23. Saint John -0.12
24. Thunder Bay -0.82
25. Saguenay -2.65

Average of 25 census metropolitan areas: 9.42.

By Christine Dobby

Republished from the Financial Post, July 18, 2011